Big 12 Predict-O-Scores: Week #12

Currently the Hawk Digest VIC-20 supercomputer is 37-13 straight up. As a spread beater -- 18-30. The VIC-20 almost projected all five road teams, but gave up on Baylor. Personally, I like Baylor in that game. Surely, somebody will win at home this week.

Mizzou 38, at Iowa State 26
Vegas likes the Tigers (-28)

Nebraska 42, at Kansas State 37
Vegas has NU (-7)

Texas 34, at Kansas 33
Say it ain't so, supercomputer
Vegas votes for Bevo (-13)

OSU 33, at Colorado 26
Vegas is a 40-year-old man (-17)

At Texas A&M 33, Baylor 25
Vegas backs Robert Griffin (-8) 

Update on Tuesday, November 18, 2008 at 07:31AM by DJ Goodwin

4-1 SU
1-4 ATS

Sound and the Fury: Fuel in the Tank

CAN THE JAYHAWKS FIND THE SPARK?
In his Big 12 power rankings yesterday, Blair Kerkoff asked whether or not KU had "anything left in the tank." I think that really points to one of the significant issues with not being able to break through with a big win for the 2008 season so far. Both emotionally and physically, I think it's tough for ascending mid-level teams reaching for the elite status to withstand the beating taken over a full season. 

I think we watched that scenario play out with the ISU program under Dan McCarney. Even when they were good, they always seemed to struggle late in the season. For teams that don't have a lot of talented depth that becomes a problem -- you can only play on emotion so long and the physical toll is going to start to show in November. ISU always has that tough non-con with Iowa. This year KU took on USF and you hope that game prepares you to play with high level Big 12 competition. The reality is we took a hit on confidence and now the physical toll is evident as even Mangino is describing us as a poor tackling team. When a team is not tackling, I look to physical fatigue and the mental edge.

Playing a weak non-con will draw media skepticism (though not for Texas Tech or UT), but the reality is that's a non-factor as the Big 12 provides all the competition you need. Until we've added another 20,000 seats to Memorial and consistently sell out 70k, we'll need to use the four non-cons to develop our transition players.

SPARK II
There's been some discussion on the boards about the fact that under Mark Mangino the Jayhawks rarely quit. Some fans felt that there was some quit in the Texas Tech game. That's up for debate, but I did see the Jayhawks finally quit in 2006. I really couldn't blame them after what they had been through. It was the first half of the Colorado game and that is the worst performance the team ever put together under Mangino.

Of course, you know that Mangino pulled Todd Reesing's redshirt at halftime and the kid came in and lit a fire under the Jayhawks that literally burned through the 2007 season. Some of the veterans really took advantage of that spark and Reesing's passion for the game ... and winning. Guys like Anthony Collins, Aqib Talib and James McClinton showed a lot of emotion on the field and backed it up. It was almost like they had been waiting for a big time QB to show up. For years the Hawks had to try to slug it out with a constant rotation at the QB position. It was like, "now we have a winner at QB, forget about it, let's do some damage."

And they did.

All of the sudden though, Reesing is a veteran (it happens fast in the college game) and a marked man in the Big 12. It's time for some young players to step up and show some spark. It's time to show us that you're here to win and not just taking up space. There are veterans out there that have been battling for four or five years. Take a look at what James Holt is doing. Get inspired -- get in the game -- get in the battle -- play football and win. It's fun, I guarantee it.

Todd Reesing Bounce Back TD Throw To Kerry Meier Video

This was requested in the forum. Pretty incredible.

Around the Big 12: Week #11

1 (A+ 98%) - Texas Tech (10-0)
I don't have any questions ... do you have any questions? Two weeks until the biggest game in the history of organized sport this week. 
(HD rank 5-5-4-4-4-4-4-4-2-1-1)

2 (A 97%) - Texas (9-1)
Beating up on Baylor (45-21) can't be that much fun anymore. The Horns have to take care of business and hope. Looks like it could be nasty weather in Lawrence.
(HD rank 4-4-3-3-3-3-1-1-1-2-2)

3 (A 96%) - Oklahoma (9-1)
No mercy for the Aggies -- 66-28. I guess the Sooners are about as ready as they'll ever be to host Texas Tech. Too bad we have to wait two weeks.
(HD rank 1-1-1-1-1-1-3-3-3-3-3)

4 (A- 92%) - Oklahoma State (9-1)
Join the club Cowboys. Well, Oklahoma is still at the end of the schedule, so there is still damage to be done. Maybe a trip to Boulder will clear your heads.
(HD rank 6-6-6-7-6-6-2-2-4-4)

5 (A- 91%) - Missouri (8-2)
Why was everybody so sad on senior day? I was kind of happy. The Tigers are bored. Should be a lovely evening up in Ames next Saturday night.
(HD rank 2-2-2-2-2-2-5-5-5-5-5)

6 (B 85%) - Nebraska (6-4)
The Huskers are beating the teams they can and staying on target for 8-4. Looks like an easy finish at KSU then hosting CU. Empty seats in Lincoln looked weird.
(HD rank 8-7-7-8-8-8-9-7-6-7-6)

7 (C 75%) - Kansas (6-4)
A game to remember for all of the wrong reasons. Are the Hawks going to knock off a good team this year? Time is getting short. 
(HD rank 3-3-5-6-5-5-6-6-7-6-7)

8 (D+ 68%) Baylor (3-7)
First off, Robert Griffin III is fun to watch. Second, I bet he'll be an absolute nightmare by the time they get back on our rotation. Third, I really liked what the Bears did defensively against Colt McCoy to start the game. Mixing it up between dropping nine into coverage and disguised blitzes. A&M visits next week in what should be a good matchup.
(HD rank 11-11-10-9-9-10-8-10-10-8-8)

9 (D 65%) - Kansas State (4-6)
That blowout rolled out kind of slow. Are the Cats improving? For once, I may root for the Cats to beat NU.
(HD rank 9-9-9-10-10-11-7-9-9-9-9)

10 (D- 62%) Texas A&M (4-6)
Kind of a rough senior day (66-28 to OU). It's almost over -- at Baylor, at Texas.
(HD rank 12-12-12-12-12-12-12-11-11-10-10)

11(D- 61%) - Colorado (5-5)
Decisive. The 28-24 win over ISU keeps bowl hopes alive. OSU visits this week, then there is the Thanksgiving trip to the land of corn.
(HD rank 7-8-8-5-7-7-10-8-8-11-11)

12 (F- 53%) Iowa State (2-8)
One foot. The death of hope. Mizzou visits next week, then a trip to Manhattan (not the fun Manhattan).(HD rank 10-10-11-11-11-9-11-12-12-12-12)

Freeman Johns, Mark Mangino and the BCS

That's right -- dollar signs. The Cap-Journal offered up a nice little history lesson on Charles-Gordon-Gate from the 2004 Texas visit. Here's an excerpt:

“Ten thousand bucks? Ten thousand bucks,” he said, predicting his fine. “I've got a team to fight for and I'm not going to be pushed around, or let this university be pushed around, because we're not the big spenders, not the big BCS team in the league.”

In that moment, he became Kansas football. Or was it the other way around?

For the record, there were two other factors that sent KU fans over the edge. The first was that Freeman Johns made the call while standing in front of the Texas sideline. The second was that Freeman Johns is from Texas. Put it all together and even though you see all kinds of bad calls watching college football ... well, let's just say it gave me a very sick feeling.

Kevin Keitzman -- Thank You!

I admit it. I had the situation all wrong. I really believed that beating Texas and Mizzou wouldn't be enough to get the Jayhawks a Big 12 North title and more importantly a berth in the championship game at Arrowhead. You figure with KU sitting in the mid-forties of the CBS poll that there is no way they could ever finish ahead of MU in the polls even if we could conjure up that magical three-way tie. So I figured we had to count on Nebraska to lose and that just ain't gonna happen now.

Then, I found hope in the least likely sector of the entire galaxy -- Kevin Keitzman's afternoon show on 810. The man is right. KU is likely to get enough bounce out of a win over Texas plus Missouri to possibly move ahead of the Tigers in the polls. In fact, since it would all play out over a three-week period, he's 100% right. Hey, man. That's all I need. We control our own destiny. I don't care if we're playing the '72 Dolphins this Saturday -- all I know is we are still alive and all we got to do is win the next one. Bring on the Longhorns, the game is on.

Monday Recycle: Texas Week

IT'S HEREcredit: Shane Pope (flicker CC)
Every morning since November 13, 2004, my day has started with the same thought -- we're going to pound Texas on November 15, 2008. If there is such thing as justice, it must be. As the date approaches, I'm not quite sure that I could have ever envisioned us entering this game on such a brutal low.

Based on the early Mangino years I would have thought that Memorial Stadium would be an impenatrable fortress by now. Texas Tech blew that theory up with some sort of nuclear weapon. Of course, Tech looks like a team with a higher purpose, so you can maybe walk away from that one.

A nice bounceback against a weak KSU team and it looks like we're on schedule. However, you giftwrap a division title for Missouri by getting physically manhandled in Lincoln and all of the sudden there is bleakness all around. No, it's not how I projected this week at all.

However, I think I'm more curious now than ever as to how the Jayhawks will approach this game. The Jayhawks have been through a lot of highs and a lot of lows and as Mike Rivera said yesterday, they just keep fighting. That's why I'll be at Senior Day on Saturday -- I want to see if the Hawks keep fighting.

LB EARNEST NORMAN BAILS
Rock Chalk Talk has the best free details on this one. Another tough blow, but I always view these the same way -- if he didn't want to be here then we definitely don't want to blow the scholarship.

REMEMBER THIS ONE
“We wanted to come out today and regain some of that respect that Kansas may have lost for us as a program. You know, we’re still Nebraska and they’re still Kansas.”
--DE Zach Potter doing his best impression of a KSU player

PAY-PER-VIEW
When I have to put down $29.95 to watch a football game on TV, I expect high-definition and a yellow line for the first down marker. Also, I'm not sure if I am in agreement that a home team should be allowed to decline a TV broadcast.

UNDEFEATED LIVES IN LUBBOCK STILL
How green with envy am I? The Red Raiders are one tough game away from playing in the national title game. That's what it's all about.

Full list of perfect teams and next opponent:
Texas Tech 10-0 with a bye week, then at OU
Alabama 10-0 vs Mississippi St. (Sat)
Utah 10-0 at San Diego State (Sat)
Boise State 9-0 at Idaho (Sat)
Ball State 9-0 at Miami (OH) (Tues)

Off the List:
Penn State drops out of the club with a 23-24 loss at Iowa

Inside the Tent: Nebraska 45, Kansas 35

Opportunity Wasted!

FROM THE HEARTH ROOM
You take the best team in KU football history and return nine of 11 starters on defense and the best quarterback in school history with the greatest arsenal of wideouts I've seen in blue. You go into battle in possibly the weakest BCS division in the nation with a middleweight frontrunner one-trick pony that happens to be your most hated rival. And now, by losing to a year-one Bo Pelini Nebraska program that bottomed out last season, you've created a scenario where beating Texas and the bumblebee freaks from Columbia still nets a division title and another trip to the Big 12 Championship for the black and yellow. It's in Kansas City, so they might as well bring their fire engine, cannon, white rocks and stuffed animal parade. Unless Nebraska actually throws a game against KSU or Colorado, the University of Kansas football program will have allowed Missouri to claim division titles in back-to-back years when they were the one team that could have prevented it.

Let me speak for the Jayhawk Football Nation ... and I'm talking about the real Jayhawk Football Nation -- blue warriors that were at the game in Columbia in 1996 when Glen Mason and the team did a no-show or Senior Day vs North Texas or any of the occasions when KSU hung 60 plus on the Jayhawks in Lawrence. For those fans, let me just say, "we are disgusted."

PLUS
It could be a benefit for recruiting. Playing time available at the d-line, o-line and linebacker positions ... and of course, the help wanted sign is always hanging out for the secondary. Prinz Kande -- we love you.

MINUS
I may have already detailed the one big minus in the hearth room section above, but there's more.

1) Phil Steele was right, right, right, right and I really wanted to the Jayhawks to take his preseason mag and shred it.
2) Can't play in the heat, can't play in the cold. Body language said it all in the first half.
3) 1968 lives on.

WORLD VIEW
KU's football program is still a year-to-year yo-yo as it has been for almost a century. Still, if a down year is a low-level bowl and playing in November for a division title, then we are moving forward. Recruiting continues to improve so we'll see what the future Jayhawks can do as that young talent develops. Keep sawin' wood.

Game Preview: KU @ Nebraska

Jake Sharp Tore It Up Against KSU / credit: annependleton.com

Can Jake Sharp Run Wild Again?

Series: NU 88-23-2
Time: Saturday, Nov. 8 - 1:30 p.m. (CT)
Venue: Memorial Stadium (81,067)
Location: Lincoln, Nebraska
TV: Pay-Per-View (Details)
Line: NU (-1.5)

Recent History (NU 8-2)
1998 NU 41, KU 0
1999 NU 24, KU 17
2000 NU 56, KU 17
2001 NU 51, KU 7
2002 NU 45, KU 7
2003 NU 24, KU 3
2004 NU 14, KU 8
2005 KU 40, NU 15
2006 NU 39, KU 31
2007 KU 76, NU 39

Rock Chalk Roundtable 6 -- Nebraska Week

Hawk Digest Preseason Nebraska Preview

The Scene
It's a strange feeling to be more focused on the North title chase rather than 1968. History is interesting, but what's going on right now seems a little more significant. The Jayhawks are in the mix and Nebraska needs some help, but they're still in it as well, so it'll be a playoff atmosphere up in Lincoln.

The Key
There are really two things that KU has to do here:

1) Mount a pass rush

2) Set the running game free

I guess another way of saying that is we really have to control the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball, which is no revelation. You know the drill though, KU has to get pressure on the opponent QB to be effective at pass defense. On the other side, defenses really struggle when the Jayhawks come at them with a balanced attack.

The Motivation
Other than a division title and a potential shot at a re-match with Tech, this one goes a long way toward establishing KU as a solid #2 in the North pecking order. The Jayhawks are 10-3 in the North since 2006 with the only losses coming to Mizzou and Nebraska. Taking two in-a-row against the Huskers says quite a bit. The other thing is I think fans are anxious for Mark Mangino to extend the Northern Fighting Mangino Road Tour Experience to Lincoln, Nebraska. Where it's been:

2004 -- Columbia, MO / 31-14
2006 -- Ames, IA / 41-10
2007 -- Manhattan, KS / 30-24
2007 -- Boulder, CO / 19-14
2008 -- Ames, IA / 35-33

“It’s going to be tough. They’re still Nebraska, and we’re going to be in Lincoln and it’s definitely a tough place to play. We’re going to have to have another great week of preparation and hopefully take care of business on Saturday.”

--Jake Sharp on Nebraska

Big 12 Predict-O-Scores: Week #11 - Captain Ron Edition

Well, the coach formerly known as Captain Ron, aka Scary Smart, aka Bold and Daring is now a lame Prince. It made for an interesting afternoon on 810 Sports with Jack Harry and Kevin Keitzman going kinda psycho. Trouble within the Axis of Evil, dear?

Like the Terry Allen dismissal, some were disappointed that he was let go mid-season. Hey, talk to the folks at Circuit City. Getting the axe as the head man of a college program is a brutal public episode and I think everyone has some compassion from that perspective (except maybe the hardcore KSU fans), but in the end, Ron is going to come out okay financially. In fact, I believe he'll go on to become a fantastic color announcer for some network. He can break down a game with the best. Those who can't do -- get jobs in the media.

Okay, down to business. The VIC 20 supercomputer is now 16-26 versus the spread. Impressive. This is a reverse spread money machine. Straight up the VIC is 33-11. This week's predictions:

At MU 39, KSU 27
Vegas votes no on Prince making MU a 27-point favorite

At Texas 40, Baylor 20
Vegas likes UT (-27)

At Colorado 30, Iowa State 25
Vegas loves the Buffs (-9.5). This one is televised -- wee hoo!

OSU 35, at Texas Tech 34
Vegas has Tech (-3)

Oklahoma 38, at Texas A&M 24
Vegas has OU (-27)

Kansas 45, at Nebraska 36
Vegas opened with KU, but as of today Nebraska is the favorite (-1)

Update on Thursday, November 13, 2008 at 07:11AM by DJ Goodwin

4-2 straight up

2-4 ATS

Wichita Eagle Reporting Ron Prince Is Out

Credit: Catastrophy (Flickr CC)

"... Ron Prince is expected to announce his resignation this afternoon, two sources close to the situation told The Eagle.

Prince will, however, coach the remainder of the season, one source said.

According to the sources, Prince has scheduled a 2:45 p.m. meeting with his team and will later hold a conference call with the media."

 http://www.kansas.com/354/story/586707.html

Tuesday Recycle: It's All About The Spat

Spat in action / credit: www.annependleton.com

SPAT, SERIOUSLY
Okay, it's going to be hard to prove, but seriously I had commented to Hawk Digest interns a few times this season that I would never buy a pair of Adidas shoes because I have never seen a football team slip as much as the 2008 Jayhawks. How many times this year have you watched Todd Reesing have to put a hand down after nearly falling when making one of his patented moves out of the pocket. Hey, I'm convinced -- spat works. More importantly, the players are convinced. So what would have been the objection?

KU HAMMERS KSU PHOTO GALLERY
See more photos like the one above as the KSU game photo gallery is up and running courtesy of annependleton.com

ARROWHEAD EXTENSION?
Posters on the Grid were discussing comments by Kevin Keitzman about a four-year extension to the Arrowhead Border War experiment. He is claiming an announcement will be coming later this week. If so, that's a mistake. It should be evaluated in January.

JERON MASTRUD
Didn't anyone notice that he seems to be quite a trash-talker? I'm going to recommend that he check the scoreboard every now and then.

UNDEFEATED LIVES IN LUBBOCK
The last true "TYK" team fell when OSU couldn't get it done against Texas. I guess you could throw Tech in the mix, but too many people were calling for them to be legit in the offseason. Still, a great place to be for Red Raiders fans

Full list of perfect teams and next opponent:
Alabama 9-0 at LSU (Sat)
Texas Tech 9-0 vs OSU (Sat)
Penn State 9-0 at Iowa (Sat)
Utah 9-0 vs TCU (Thur)
Boise State 8-0 vs Utah St (Sat)
Ball State 8-0 vs N. Illinois (Wed)

Off the List:
Texas lost to Tech 33-39

Update on Wednesday, November 5, 2008 at 06:09AM by DJ Goodwin

Jim Marchiony had to discount Kevin Keitzman's claim that the Arrowhead Border War would be extended four years. It will be decided near the end of the season according to Marchiony:

http://www2.kusports.com/news/2008/nov/05/dugan_arnetts_ku_football_notebook/